The race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) is not just a technological sprint; it's a geopolitical marathon that could redefine global power dynamics. As the world watches, India stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the potential to shape how AI diffuses through society. This journey is akin to the transformative impacts of fire, electricity, and computing, technologies that have historically reshaped economies and societies.
In recent developments, DeepSeek has challenged the notion of US supremacy in AI, opening the field to global players. This democratization means that anyone with above-average computer skills can now deploy open-source AI models that rival state-of-the-art systems. Consequently, the focus is shifting from merely developing AI to effectively diffusing it across various sectors.
The true victors in this AI era will be those who not only create intelligent machines but also harness their potential to drive economic and social change. AI's compounding effects mean that early adopters—be they nations, companies, or individuals—could secure long-term leadership. For India, this means strategists and policymakers must prioritize AI adoption alongside its development.
At the macroeconomic level, AI's impact on productivity is a subject of debate. A 2023 Goldman Sachs report suggests AI could boost India's total factor productivity by 0.7% annually, a modest figure compared to the 3% growth seen during the digitalization boom. However, some experts, like Daren Acemoglu, predict even smaller gains, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding AI's economic impact.
Despite these uncertainties, the potential for AI to revolutionize the global economy is undeniable. The International Monetary Fund has noted that a significant portion of jobs in advanced economies are at risk of AI-driven displacement. In India, about 10% of jobs face similar threats. Yet, sectors untouched by AI may lag in productivity and prosperity compared to their AI-enhanced counterparts.
To capitalize on AI's potential, India must refocus its education system on sectors ripe for AI augmentation, such as professional services, industrial robotics, and high-tech agriculture. Interestingly, AI could enhance the productivity of below-average skilled workers, offering a chance to address historical educational shortcomings.
The trajectory of AI diffusion remains uncertain. Will AI be an incremental improvement, like a faster train, or a transformative force, like an airplane? Will it augment human labor or replace it through automation? A transformative augmentation path aligns with India's interests, promising a broad productivity surge and opportunities for Indian firms and citizens.
However, this path also pressures India's education, welfare, and urban systems. The worst-case scenario involves transformative automation, leading to global disruption and concentrated power. Even then, India could leapfrog economically, albeit with risks of unemployment and social instability.
Ultimately, the diffusion of AI is not predetermined by technology alone. Human agency and public policy play crucial roles. India has the opportunity to influence AI's trajectory through international cooperation and strategic choices, ensuring mutual benefits and a prosperous future.
Summary:
- India can shape AI's global diffusion, balancing development and adoption.
- AI's impact on productivity is debated, with potential modest gains for India.
- Education must focus on AI-augmentable sectors to harness opportunities.
- AI diffusion's trajectory—incremental or transformative—remains uncertain.
- Human agency and policy can guide AI's path for mutual global benefits.