The global race for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy is heating up, but recent US policies may be tipping the scales in unexpected ways. Helen Toner, former OpenAI board member and director of strategy at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), has sounded the alarm: by targeting academic research and restricting international students, the US could be handing China a significant advantage in the AI race.
Toner’s unique perspective comes from years of studying the intersection of AI, safety, and international competition. She’s seen firsthand how the US’s approach to research and talent can shape the future of technology. According to Toner, the US’s recent moves—such as tightening controls on research and limiting visas for international students—are a “great gift” to China. Why? Because innovation thrives on open collaboration and a diverse, skilled workforce, much of which has historically come from abroad.
The Value of International Talent
The US has long been a magnet for the world’s brightest minds, especially in technology and science. Many of the country’s leading AI researchers and engineers are immigrants, with a significant number coming from China. By making it harder for these individuals to study and work in the US, the country risks losing its competitive edge. As Toner points out, this isn’t just a theoretical concern—China is making serious strides in AI, as seen with the rapid progress of models like DeepSeek.
AI’s Impact on the Workforce
The AI boom is already reshaping the job market. Experts like Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, predict that AI could automate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs, potentially leading to 20% unemployment in the next five years. While Toner agrees that disruption is underway, she cautions against alarmist timelines. Still, she notes that the tasks most vulnerable to automation are often those handled by interns or recent graduates—precisely the roles that help young professionals gain experience.
Navigating Uncertainty in AI Development
Companies are racing to deploy AI products, often making critical decisions on the fly. The pressure to innovate quickly can lead to trade-offs between safety, usability, and profitability. Toner highlights the challenge of balancing these competing demands, especially as businesses seek to demonstrate returns on their AI investments. The future dominance of AI—whether through integrated services or standalone chatbots—remains uncertain.
Opportunities and Risks Ahead
Despite her concerns, Toner is optimistic about AI’s potential to drive positive change. She sees promise in AI-powered scientific discovery, drug development, and self-driving technologies that could save lives on the road. However, she warns against the risk of “gradual disempowerment”—the slow, unnoticed transfer of control to AI systems in critical areas of society. The key, she argues, is to ensure that AI remains a tool for human benefit, not a force that erodes our agency.
Actionable Takeaways
- Support policies that encourage open research and attract global talent.
- Stay informed about the evolving impact of AI on the workforce and economy.
- Advocate for responsible AI development that prioritizes safety and transparency.
- Embrace AI’s potential for good, but remain vigilant about unintended consequences.
Summary of Key Points
- US restrictions on research and international students may benefit China in the AI race.
- International talent is crucial for maintaining US leadership in AI.
- AI is already disrupting entry-level jobs, with more changes ahead.
- The future of AI dominance and business models is still uncertain.
- Responsible, human-centered AI development is essential for long-term success.